Tariff volatility, a softening Australian dollar and AI-driven supply chain disruption are squeezing exporters and importers across the region harder than at any point since the pandemic.
4 min read
Bendigo businesses with international exposure are entering the second half of 2026 in a defensive crouch. A confluence of trade pressures — stubborn US tariff policy, a weakened Australian dollar hovering around 62 US cents, and surging logistics costs tied to AI datacenter construction competing for industrial land — has made cross-border commerce genuinely difficult in ways that balance sheets are only now starting to reflect.
The timing matters. Australia's trade relationships are at a delicate juncture. The federal government is managing simultaneously a post-election agenda on domestic manufacturing and a fragile set of Asia-Pacific trade arrangements that remain sensitive to moves in Washington. For a regional city like Bendigo — which punches well above its weight through agribusiness exports, specialist manufacturing and an increasingly internationalised health and education sector — the macro turbulence lands on real ledgers at real companies.
The Bendigo Business Council, which operates out of offices on Hargreaves Street, has fielded a notable uptick in inquiries from member firms seeking guidance on currency hedging and alternative supply chains since March. The organisation's trade and export advisory program, which connects regional businesses with the Victorian Government's Global Victoria desk, has seen demand roughly double compared with the same period last year, according to the council's most recent member survey circulated in June.
Out at the Bendigo Technology Park on Midland Highway, at least three manufacturing firms with components sourced from Southeast Asia have flagged formal reviews of their supplier arrangements. The concern isn't just cost — it's lead time unpredictability. Container shipping rates on the Asia-Australia corridor climbed roughly 34 percent between January and May 2026, according to Freightos Baltic Index data, reversing two years of post-pandemic normalisation.
La Trobe University's Bendigo campus, a significant node in the city's international education economy, is also navigating headwinds. International student enrolments from South and Southeast Asia account for a substantial share of the campus's fee revenue, and the combination of a stronger US dollar and tightening visa processing times under changes introduced in late 2025 has created uncertainty in the pipeline for the 2027 intake. The university declined to provide specific enrolment projections ahead of its August reporting cycle.
The currency situation deserves particular attention from regional exporters. The Australian dollar's slide to 62 US cents — a level last seen consistently in mid-2020 — creates a double-edged dynamic. It flatters the returns for commodity and agribusiness exporters in the Loddon Mallee region who invoice in US dollars, but it simultaneously inflates the cost of imported inputs for manufacturers, from steel to electronics components to specialised machinery.
A less obvious pressure point is the competition for industrial land. National reporting this week has documented how the race to build AI datacenters is absorbing industrial-zoned land in major cities and crowding out freight and logistics operators. Bendigo has positioned itself — through the City of Greater Bendigo's Economic Development Strategy — as a potential hub for decentralised logistics and light manufacturing precisely because of its relative land availability and NBN-connected precincts. That advantage could erode if major operators begin looking regionally to escape metropolitan congestion. The infrastructure opportunity and the cost pressure arrive at the same moment.
For Bendigo's trade-exposed businesses, the practical calculus for the rest of 2026 comes down to three things: lock in currency exposure where possible before the Reserve Bank's August meeting, which markets are pricing as likely to hold rates steady; review supplier diversity seriously rather than treating it as a compliance exercise; and use programs like Export Finance Australia's SME guarantee scheme — which covers businesses with turnover up to $250 million — before the federal mid-year budget update potentially reshapes the program's parameters. The window for orderly adjustment is still open. It won't stay open indefinitely.
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Published by The Daily Bendigo
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