Bendigo's job market hits turbulence as investor retreat and AI disruption squeeze local employers

Bendigo's unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8 percent in the June quarter, according to regional labour force data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the highest local reading since mid-2021. For a city that rode post-pandemic momentum hard — hospitality strips along View Street filled back up, the Bendigo CBD vacancy rate dropped to near-record lows by late 2023 — the reversal is sharp enough to draw attention from local planners and business groups alike.

The timing matters. Across Victoria, property investors have been pulling back sharply following last year's state budget changes, which tightened land tax thresholds and added compliance obligations for landlords. Auction clearance rates in Melbourne have slumped, and the knock-on effect is being felt in regional centres that had previously benefited from investor-driven construction activity. Fewer investment properties built means fewer tradies hired, fewer property managers needed, and fewer local suppliers kept busy.

Cost pressure biting hardest in hospitality and retail

The Bendigo business community is not facing a single crisis — it is facing several at once. The hospitality sector along Pall Mall and around Hargreaves Street has absorbed three consecutive years of energy cost increases, with some venue operators reporting electricity bills up more than 35 percent since 2023. Minimum wage increases — the Fair Work Commission lifted the national minimum wage by 3.5 percent from July 1 this year — are welcome for workers but have forced a number of café and restaurant owners to cut casual hours rather than raise prices further in a market where foot traffic has already softened.

The Bendigo Chamber of Commerce has flagged to the City of Greater Bendigo council that small-to-medium businesses are struggling to retain staff at the hours they need. Full-time equivalent positions at some local retail outlets have been quietly converted to casual or part-time arrangements, a shift that flatters the headline employment number while concealing the hollowing out of steady, secure work. The chamber's most recent member survey, conducted in May, found 62 percent of respondents described hiring conditions as harder than a year ago.

La Trobe University's Bendigo campus has also flagged a mismatch building in the local labour market. Graduates coming out of the business and health faculties on Edwards Road are finding fewer entry-level positions, particularly in professional services, where several regional accounting and legal firms have either paused hiring or shifted workloads to Melbourne-based teams supported by AI-assisted platforms. Meta's recent crackdown on AI-generated impersonation accounts underlines how fast synthetic content and automated tools are reshaping knowledge work, and regional firms are not immune to that pressure.

Infrastructure spend offers a partial counter

There are genuine counterweights. The $300 million Bendigo Hospital redevelopment pipeline, which flows through to construction subcontractors across Kangaroo Flat and Long Gully, continues to underpin a layer of trade employment that would otherwise look considerably worse. Nursing and allied health recruitment remains strong, with Bendigo Health actively advertising for registered nurses and specialist roles through its Lucan Street campus. The care economy — aged care, disability support, early childhood — is expanding, with Baptcare and other providers adding positions across the northern suburbs.

The state government's ongoing investment in the Bendigo-to-Melbourne rail corridor upgrade also represents a pipeline of civil construction work, though local unions have noted that main-package contracts have thus far gone to companies headquartered outside the region, limiting how much of the wages bill actually circulates in Bendigo's local economy.

For job seekers navigating the current climate, the practical picture is uneven. Workers with trade certificates, health qualifications or NDIS registration are in demand. Those without specific credentials, particularly in generalist office or retail roles, face genuine competition. Workforce Central, the federally funded employment services provider operating out of Mitchell Street, has reported a 19 percent increase in new client registrations since January. Businesses, meanwhile, would do well to explore the City of Greater Bendigo's small business support grants program, which has a July 31 application deadline for its current $5,000 round of operational cost assistance funding.