Tariffs, AI land grabs and cooling prices: What Bendigo businesses need to know about global trade right now

The global trading environment shifted again this week, and Bendigo businesses that export goods, import supplies or compete for industrial land are feeling the pressure from multiple directions at once. The question is no longer whether international headwinds will reach Mitchell Street, it's how fast.

Three forces are colliding simultaneously: ongoing uncertainty around US tariff settings, a fierce national competition for industrial land driven by AI datacentre construction, and a softening Australian property market that is changing the cost calculus for businesses planning expansion or relocation. None of these is an abstract policy question. Each carries a direct price tag for Central Victorian operators.

The AI land grab is not just a Sydney problem

Economists at the University of Melbourne and Infrastructure Victoria have both flagged that the rapid rollout of AI datacentre facilities across the country is consuming industrial-zoned land at a pace that is crowding out freight, logistics and manufacturing users. Nationally, industrial land in major markets has seen lease rates climb more than 30 per cent since 2023. Bendigo, which has marketed its Marong Business Park on the Calder Highway as an affordable alternative to Melbourne's saturated west, is now fielding interest from operators who would previously not have looked beyond the metro fringe.

That's a double-edged development. On one side, Bendigo Economic Development is actively pitching the city's roughly 600 hectares of serviced industrial land to interstate investors. On the other, local manufacturers and food processors who were eyeing sites at Marong for their own expansion plans are finding competition, and prices, rising faster than anticipated. The City of Greater Bendigo's current industrial land strategy, adopted in 2023, did not model this level of demand from the tech sector.

Regional businesses that export, and Bendigo has a significant cluster, from the agri-food sector operating out of the Epsom industrial precinct to advanced manufacturers supplying the mining services industry, also need to watch the Australian dollar closely. The AUD has been trading in the US 62-64 cent band through June 2026, a level that simultaneously boosts export returns and inflates the cost of imported components. A business buying precision equipment from Germany or South Korea is paying roughly 18 per cent more in Australian dollar terms than it was in mid-2022.

What the tariff uncertainty means for local exporters

US tariff settings remain the single biggest source of uncertainty for Australian exporters in the second half of 2026. While agricultural products covered by the Australia-US Free Trade Agreement retain preferential access, manufactured goods and processed food products face a more complicated picture following the tariff schedules Washington revised in April. The Bendigo-based food processing sector, which includes operations supplying export markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, is less directly exposed than east-coast seafood or red meat exporters, but supply chain costs still flow through.

The Bendigo Chamber of Commerce has been running export-readiness workshops at its Spring Street offices through the first half of 2026, in partnership with the Victorian Department of Jobs and Industry. Those sessions have drawn more than 80 local businesses since February, a number that suggests the appetite for practical trade intelligence is genuine. Businesses that have not yet engaged with Export Finance Australia's small business guarantee program, which can cover up to $350,000 in trade finance for eligible exporters, are leaving a tool on the table.

Agribusiness operators across the Loddon Mallee region are also watching closely as the federal government finalises its response to new European Union deforestation and carbon border adjustment regulations, both of which take effect progressively from 2026 to 2027 and will require more detailed supply chain documentation from any business exporting to EU markets.

The practical priority for Bendigo operators right now is a two-step one: get a currency risk assessment done through your bank or a licensed FX provider before the end of the July quarter, and check whether your goods are affected by the revised US tariff schedule before you lock in forward pricing with international buyers. The Bendigo Business Hub on Williamson Street can connect businesses with Trade Victoria advisers who make regular visits to the region. The next scheduled session is late July. Book early, demand has outstripped capacity at each of the last three visits.